Though yet to declare interest in retaining his present position beyond 2015, but his body language, display of campaign posters and bill boards across the State from political allies and aides suggest that Governor Yero is very much interested in occupying Sir Kashim Ibrahim House beyond 2015. MIDAT JOSEPH examines the likely factors that may make or mar the governor’s chances

Governor Mukhtar Ramalan Yero was on Sunday 16th December, 2012 sworn-in as the Executive Governor of Kaduna State by the state Chief Judge, Justice Rahila Cudjo, following the demise of his late boss, Sir Patrick Ibranim Yakowa in a helicopter crash far away Bayelsa State.
Hardly has the 46 year Governor settled down to deliver on his December 16th inaugural speech, Political gladiators and  aides took over the streets of Kaduna with 2015 posters, bill boards as well as the social media.
He has the incumbency power to stay in Government House beyond the 2015, if eventually he decides to throw his hat into the ring.
Born on 1st of May, 1968 in Zaria, young Yero started in LEA Primary School, Angwan Kaura in Zaria Local Government from 1974 to 1980.  Immediately he completed his Primary School, he gained admission into Government Secondary School, Ikara and later Government Day Secondary School, Zaria thus completing his Secondary School in 1986 and obtained his West African School Certificate.
Between 1986 and 2003, Mukhtar attended Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria where he obtained a Diploma in Banking, B.Sc in Accounting and a Master’s Degree in Business Administration (MBA). Between 2003 and 2004, his quest for professionalism in his chosen career took him to the College of Accountancy, Jos where he obtained a membership of Association of National Accountants of Nigeria (ANAN).
The Governor’s working career started when, as a Youth Copper, 1991 – 1992, he served as an Assistant Accountant with the Ogun State Bulk Purchasing Corporation in Ibara, Abeokuta. And between 1992 – 1993, he returned to his alma mater, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria where he was employed as a Higher Executive Officer (Accounts). Between 1993 – 1997, he moved to Nigerian Universal Bank Limited, Kaduna as Supervisor (Accounts) in the Head Office Accounts Department and later Supervisor, Officer Grade III at the Sabon Tasha Branch.
Destiny moved him in 1997 to Nalado Nigeria Limited where he served variously as Chief Accountant, Head of Administration, Head of Administration and Finance, and Director Finance and Administration. In July 2007, he was appointed the Honourable Commissioner of Finance under the administration of Arc. Mohammed Namadi Sambo (now Vice President).
In may 2010, when the then Deputy Governor of Kaduna State, late Sir. Patrick Ibrahim Yakowa was elevated to the position of executive Governor of the State, Yero became the Deputy Governor. And finally became the governor in 2002 following Yakowa’s demise.
The Governor, no doubt stands the better chance of winning 2015 considering how destiny has been his friend as well as the power of incumbency, but that does not mean there are no obstacles.
Pundit believe that the governor who has never contested election politically, will need time to convince electorates that he meant well for them and that he has what it takes to deliver.
A senior lecture with the Kaduna State University and a public commentator, Dr. John Danfulani who spoke on the chances of the governor Yero’s return to Government House said, “The Struggle for Sir Kashim Ibrahim House Kaduna has gone far.”
According to him, “from all indications, the ruling party PDP and the main opposition APC will square off. Tradition dictates that all incumbent Governors who are constitutionally allowed additional term(s) and willing to try again, usually have a smooth sail of becoming flag bearers of their party. Writing on the wall shows that this aged tradition will stand in regards to who will be PDP’s gubernatorial candidate in Kaduna State in 2015.”
“The race to Sir Kashim Ibrahim House in 2015 will surely be one of those interesting tangos the entire nations is waiting to see,” he said.

The Yakowa Factor:
According to Dr. Danfulani “a horizontal and vertical scaling of challenges and prospects shows that, there might be an upstage because many negative variables associated with Governor Yero since his ascension to power after the death of Yakowa on 15th December 2012.
“On 16th and 20th December Yero made speeches and in them, promised to live by his late boss legacies. A few days after the burial, he started demolishing the legacies he promised to uphold.
“Within seven months of his reign, he did not only abandon Yakowa’s legacies but started criminalising, demonising, and blackmailing him in death.
“It started with introduction of major changes in the 2013 appropriation bill Yakowa gave the house. That was followed by a mini cabinet reshufflement.
“And the sacking of Kaduna State House of Assembly leadership. That was followed by complete sacking of the cabinet he inherited. And finally abandoning of projects initiated by Yakowa in Southern Part of the State.
“A combination of these deliberate acts made Yero the most unpopular political figure in the State, since inception of civil rule on 29th May 1999,” he said.
Yakowa’s kinsmen are hoping that the ruling PDP will give one of their own the ticket to complete their tenure started by the late governor. Anything short of this will mean protest votes against governor Yero in 2015.

Fraternity with VP Sambo:
Governor Yero’s loyalty to Vice President Namadi Sambo is a factor that could mar his desired return to Sir Kashim Ibrahim House in 2015.
According to Dr. John Danfulani, Yero’s other greatest trouble is his fraternity with his former boss and now Vice President Arc Namadi Sambo.
According to Danfulani, “Sambo’s overbearing influence on the Governor which has automatically converted the seat of an Executive Governor to a ceremonial one will serious affect the chances of governor Yero’s return.
“This is because Yero takes orders from Abuja on every single major decision. This isn’t going down well with majority of the people of Kaduna State.
A combination of these factors has made the drive to defeat him in 2015 less cumbersome. Opposition party aspirants are seriously working and plotting on how to capture their party flags because that looks more difficult than defeating Yero whom they believe is a slam dunk.”

The Southern Kaduna Factor:
It is unarguably that the Southern Kaduna people have been the stronghold of the PDP in the country. And the people have been given blocked votes to the ruling party since1999.
The zone has been a game decider in the history of PDP in Kaduna state, but the recent decision to vote Yero out in 2015 by the PDP stakeholders in the area is threatening his hope.
Top wigs of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) from Southern Kaduna led by Sen. Haruna Aziz recently allegedly told the Governor in the presence of the Vice President that the People of the area will not vote for him in 2015 if he decide to run for the office.
The decision was allegedly made known to Vice President Namadi Sambo and the governor at a meeting held in Kaduna recently with top shots of the party that have been behind PDP victory since 1999.
The Stakeholders told the governor that the decision was taken after a critical review of the governor’s relationship with the people of the zone.
The party stakeholders  were quoted as saying that; “Government doesn’t pay much attention in the killings ravaging our area. And there is no continuation of projects started by late Patrick Yakowa despite promise, the whole thing in shrouded is confusion and deceit. We also made our point that there is exclusion of our people in empowerment initiative.”

Discontent in PDP:
The wave of discontent in the ruling PDP in Kaduna State, which led to mass exodus of its members to the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) has also cast a dark cloud on the return of Governor Yero.
Analyst also believed that unless there is serious reconciliation among the PDP bigwigs in the state, Yero may find it very tough to return to Government House in 2015. This is because of the rivalry between his political godfather, Sambo, and other influential party chieftains like the fromer governor of the state, Senator Ahmed Mohammed Makarfi and his former commissioners, Alhaji Samaila Yakawada,  Alhaji Shuaibu Mikatti, and some members of the Kaduna State House of Assembly.
Yakwada, who served as the Secretary to the Kaduna State Government in the Yakowa administration, is yet to forgive Sambo and Yero for, allegedly, instigating the removal of Alhaji Usman Gangara as Speaker of the Kaduna State House of Assembly.
Former National Legal Adviser of PDP and former Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice under the administration of Ahmed Mohammed Makarfi, Barr. Mark Jacob Nzama, said the PDP in the state was currently at its lowest rating since 1999, warning that unless things change, the party may be heading for disaster in the state.
Nzama maintain that it was going to be difficult to get the block votes in the southern part of the state because people of the area feel they are not being carried along.
According to him, “Instead of a policy of appeasement or discussion, we have a situation where people in government or leadership position make it a duty to insult the sensibility of our people. So we can see discontent and sadness among our people who ordinarily would vote the PDP without asking questions,” he said.
It was gathered that there are still disgruntle members of the PDP, who have vowed to remain in the party until Yero is defeated in 2015. These party members are working in collaboration with the opposition APC.

Growing Support for APC:
The decamping of the former Kaduna State PDP chairman to the APC in December 24 last year opens the chapter of a massive support for the APC. Alhaji Audi Yaro Makama and Ambassador Sule Buba, who was the campaign director of the late Governor Patrick Yakowa in 2011, along with over 70 last year left the PDP to according to them help the APC wins the 2015 governorship election.
And before their defection, a stronghold PDP stakeholder, a governorship aspirant in 2011, Alh. Suleiman Uthman Hukunyi had announced that he was leaving the PDP for good.
A week later, over 1, 000 other PDP members from Kaduna North Local Government Area also moved to APC. Makama who led the defectors to the APC, alleged that the injustice in PDP had forced them to leave the party for the APC.
According to him, “We cannot wait in a party that cannot provide infrastructure to people of the state. This is why we want those in PDP to know that I hardly join a party that I know will not deliver. So, by 2015, APC will win elections in Kaduna,” Makama declared.
In another move, the All Peoples Congress (APC) received several decampees from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) into its fold.
The decampees said they left the PDP over alleged high handedness of the leadership of the party who according to them has refused to listen to advice of members who have worked for the party’s victory in Kaduna state for many years.
Among the decampees were former elected councillors on the PDP platform from Sabon-Gari, Badiko/Kurmi Mashi and Makera constituencies which have been the stronghold of the party.
The decamped former PDP Councilors include Honourables Abdullahi Sani, Bala Bally and Saminu Ibrahim Zagalo, Hon. Bala Junaidu Ex-councilor, Dabo Tela, public relations officer, Abbas Muhammad and Abdullahi Poly who are ex-officio member of the PDP and Abdulmumini Salisu the PDP Youth leader in the area along their teaming supporters.
As if that was not enough, the PDP lost three of it strong members to the APC in the governor’s hometown. A former House Of Assembly member, Alhaji Bala Alwau and former Chairman of Kubau Local government Malam Hashimu Garba Anchau including a serving councillor Zaria West Area Development council, said they took the decision to dump the PDP because the party lack the will to transform the State.
Alwau was one time majority leader in the Kaduna state house of Assembly from Zaria kewaye constituency, stressed that the Party is dead in Zaria and Kaduna State.
Since its emergence in the Kaduna State, the party has continued to receive unprecedented support from the grassroots.

The Emergence of Bantex As APC Chair.
The emergence of a former House of Representative member, Arc. Barnabas Bala Bantex from Southern Kaduna is another signal that could send Yero packing in 2015. Bantex (Christian) was voted by the majority of the APC delegate in view of his grassroots support in Southern Kaduna and could break the history of PDP in the area.
His election has again ended rumours that APC was a Muslim party. Pundist in Southern Kaduna said the election of Bantex has given the the Southern Kaduna the power of negotiating position in the state.

Completion of Yakowa’s Projects.
One of the biggest factors that will make Yero in 2015 is his ability to complete the 31 road projects awarded by late Governor Patrick Ibrahim Yakowa. This is because the administration of Governor Yero has come under serious attacks from the residents following the abandonment of the projects by contractors. The governor must not only complete projects, but start new ones in order to convince electorates of his readiness to deliver democratic dividends.

PDP Disagrees
But, the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) disagree, saying that there was no factor that will mar the chances of Governor Yero come 2015 vis a vis the Part.
Barr. Ibrahim Mansur who is the spokesman of the PDP in the state said, the party was not concerned and cannot be shaken by the decamping of some of its members to the All Progressive Congress (APC).
He said, “There was nothing that would mar Yero from returning to government house in 2015, this is because of his humility.”
“The governor had during his sworn in made a promise that he will continue with the legacy of late Yakowa’s projects. And we are watching him doing that. The recent passage of the 2014 budgets has clearly shown that the Governor has performed credibly well not withstanding the financial difficulties of the state,” he said.
He added that the decamping of some of its members to APC will not affect Governor Yero’s chances in 2015.
“Most of the people that left the PDP cannot even win their own polling unit not to even talk of wards, they have lost political relevance.
“Those people who decamp to APC have no integrity; they are in APC to actualise their personal selfish desire.
“The relationship between the Vice President and Governor Yero will not in anyway affect his chances,” he added.
According to him, Yero has completed half of the project awarded by late Yakowa and was in the process of completing other projects, adding that “Yero will win a landslide in 2015.”

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